Rise in COVID-19 cases flattened last week – but effect of tier 2 still unclear

Katherine Johnston (22 October, 2020)

On Tuesday 241 deaths were recorded across the UK

39776Daily new COVID-19 cases in Southwark. The most recent numbers are likely to change due to reporting lags.

Southwark’s new cases were levelling but not dropping after it saw a total of 255 new positive COVID-cases last week (October 12-18), compared to 254 the week before.

Between early to mid October cases jumped by more than a third within seven days. At the beginning of the month 193 new infections were recorded between September 28 to Sunday, October 4.

As of last week the seven-day rolling average for daily new infections was 38.7 – figures last seen in March and April; albeit back when the test and trace system was not in place.

The government’s own advisers had warned not locking down fully could lead to deaths rising to 200 a day by November; a grim milestone reached on Tuesday when 241 deaths were recorded across the UK amid over 21,000 daily cases nationwide – the highest since June.

The vast majority of those deaths were in England, with eight in London.

In Southwark, the total number of deaths that can be officially attributed to COVID-19 stands at 167 since February – meaning those who died within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test.

It does not include anyone who fell unwell in the early days of the pandemic, who died after 28 days, or died without taking a test.

Deaths in Southwark where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate as one cause are seen as providing a more accurate picture of the scale of the pandemic – this figure is 255 for up to mid-October.

The latest available hospital figures show 87 people were admitted to London hospitals on Saturday, October 17 alone, with over 500 people in hospital in the capital on Monday.

For anyone in doubt, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics have confirmed COVID-19 is not simply ‘like flu’.

More than three times as many people died due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) than influenza and pneumonia, between January and August 2020.

An analysis of deaths in England and Wales shows COVID-19 claimed the lives of 48,168 people, while 13,619 people died of pneumonia and 394 died from influenza.

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